In the last review(3483) I had stated "the trend is down; expect short term respite if able to hold 3400(then value of the lower end of the parallel channel); on the monthly charts, again, 3400 is a critical long term support; however if failed to hold & recover we may test 3000".
Since then it broke the lower end of the channel (dotted) & went below 3.4k, only to recover and zigzagged between 3.2k-3.6k. In the process the dotted channel has lost its importance and now the focus is shifted to the "blue channel". Last week & the beginning of the current week we saw a hectic activity near the upper end (3740 value for this week) of this new blue channel. Unless seen a break & "close" above 3740 the downtrend will continue, unabated. The value of the lower end of the parallel channel is between 3k to 2.8k for the next 1-2 weeks.
Since then it broke the lower end of the channel (dotted) & went below 3.4k, only to recover and zigzagged between 3.2k-3.6k. In the process the dotted channel has lost its importance and now the focus is shifted to the "blue channel". Last week & the beginning of the current week we saw a hectic activity near the upper end (3740 value for this week) of this new blue channel. Unless seen a break & "close" above 3740 the downtrend will continue, unabated. The value of the lower end of the parallel channel is between 3k to 2.8k for the next 1-2 weeks.
On the long term charts (Quarterly), the Index is retesting the trendline drawn from low of Mar 1991. The value of the trendline, for the current quarter, is 3360, say 3.4k.Will it able to hold it? Lets wait and watch, rather than pre-empt.
