December 16, 2008

Failed to clear the hurdle(8700)!

Nikkei 225(8568) Near Term Trend: Sideways
In the previous review I said "Last 4 weeks the index is moving in a tight range of 7.6k to 8.6k, keeping possibility of "double bottom" scenario, alive. It seems that the downside is now fairly protected at 7.6k, but what we need is a quick up move beyond this trading range and then the close above 9.6k for the confirmation of the reversal". However, the bulls failed to take advantage of the situation i.e. absence of fresh bear attack & push the index higher. Further, despite of repetitive attempts (in the last 3 trading sessions) the Nikkei failed to surpass 0.618% fib retracement (of a move from 9521 to 7406) level of 8.7k as evident on the inlaid daily chart.See the inlaid weekly close chart; the Nikkei could never muster the strength to surpass the 8.7k mark on closing basis(even though in intra-week it had rallied to 9.1k-9.3k levels). As such I would persist with an range trading (8.7k-7.6k) view on the Index, within the overall structural bear market, till the bulls shows commitments > 8.7k.