December 16, 2008

3740 remain untouched...! Weakness persist!

All Ordinaries Index(3499) Near Term Trend: Sideways
I said "The daily/monthly & quarterly charts indicating towards possible "shift" in the control, provided 3400 is defended by the bulls; & on the upside a close above 3740 will be the first sign of the strength". Last week, the index failed to achieve anything, i.e. neither a close above 3740 nor a break below 3400.On the daily charts, I was expecting bullish reversal if the index breaks (upward) the falling parallel channel (blue) and post a close above 3672(on a safer side preferably 3740). Interestingly, the index is indeed trading above the upper end of the parallel channel in the initial part of this week, however will it be able to sustain & close above the channel? It seems doubtful, for the two reasons, first, the break from the important price zones/clusters normally associated with flurry of hectic activities with increase in trading interest (read volume), which is lacking as of now. Second see the following daily chart, the price movements are with the range (of falling channel) & as long as it remains intact, one higher degree (read from weekly parallel channel) break out is always questionable. In short, I will go with sideways option for the near term trading (within the overall bear market) till the things improves a lot (first break from recent channel on the daily charts and then possibly close above 3740).