December 2, 2008

Weekness persist!

Strait Times(1655) Near Term Trend: Negative
In the last review I had argued that "STI is trading close to "reversal" points, however, a quick up move above 1785 is required to end the minor trend near 1565 with opening of short to medium term uptrend; Volatility SAR indicator pointing a reversal in the trend if able to close > 1820; on the monthly charts bulls need to 'push' the index above 1780 for the current month to remain in the game". The STI made an attempt to recover, but the trading remained confined below the crucial levels of 1780-1785, indicating lack of strength. See the inlaid weekly chart, failure to sustain above 1780-1785 can lead to retesting (breaking?) the recent low of 1473 and then lower end of the equi-distance parallel channel(1360). On the monthly chart, the month of November ended below the threshold. Now its trading below the long term trendline drawn from 1998, indicating continuation of the down trend. How much it can go down from the current levels? Its very difficult to answer that question. The best case scenario will be 'lackluster' range trading in 1470-1785 area.