I said "Watch 14.7k, a break below (on close basis) will lead to shallow down move, may be towards 14.2k -13.5k in the next few trading sessions,On the upside 15.3k is a next hurdle". Since then we had seen index moving in a choppy range of 14.7k to 15.7k; although it has surpassed the important hurdle of 15.3k, I am skeptical about sustainable up move, from here onward. In fact, I am maintaining my original view of "sell" on break of 14.7k, intact. Here is why.
The current up move (from 11814) is a "corrective" rally rather than "impulsive" move (lack of faster retracement of previous fall is the main reason). The rise is well supported by the rising trendline (blue), however a downward break can lead to serious setback for the bulls. Value of the trendline for the next 2 days is 15287 & 15469; in short before 14.7k these two values should be treated as protection for the longs, if any.
See the inlaid daily -close- chart. In the recent past, the bulls & bears had encountered many furious battles for the control of 14750 (few odd points here & there). Therefore now a move/close below 14750, say 14.7k, will lead to shift in the control of the markets, once again, into bears hand. If one could assume the scenario of breaking 14.7k, immediately, then the H&S reversal pattern will emerge, with a potential of sharp downward correction. Normally, such a small / hidden H&S pattern always cause serious destruction for the bulls. However, if the rally continues , from here onwards, then we could see 17k in the immediate near term. Lets see how the things unfolds.
The current up move (from 11814) is a "corrective" rally rather than "impulsive" move (lack of faster retracement of previous fall is the main reason). The rise is well supported by the rising trendline (blue), however a downward break can lead to serious setback for the bulls. Value of the trendline for the next 2 days is 15287 & 15469; in short before 14.7k these two values should be treated as protection for the longs, if any.
See the inlaid daily -close- chart. In the recent past, the bulls & bears had encountered many furious battles for the control of 14750 (few odd points here & there). Therefore now a move/close below 14750, say 14.7k, will lead to shift in the control of the markets, once again, into bears hand. If one could assume the scenario of breaking 14.7k, immediately, then the H&S reversal pattern will emerge, with a potential of sharp downward correction. Normally, such a small / hidden H&S pattern always cause serious destruction for the bulls. However, if the rally continues , from here onwards, then we could see 17k in the immediate near term. Lets see how the things unfolds.
