December 9, 2008

Final combat...(3400-3740)..?

All Ordinaries Index(3533) Near Term Trend: Turning Positive
I said "the activity now shifted to new falling parallel channel (blue), unless seen the close above this channel (last weeks value 3740) the downtrend will remain intact; on the quarterly charts 3400 is crucial, holding close above this in the current quarter (Dec 08) will be a positive development".
Last week the index failed to archive the feet, now once again making attempt to break the upper end of the channel (blue-3672) in the current week. Once seen close above 3672, on the safer side I will go far value of 3740, the reversal will be in sight. However on the downside, the strong support is emerging near 3400 mark, the key reversal point observed on monthly/quarterly chart. As long bulls defends this area, the possibility of reversal, at least short to medium term, will remain alive. See the inlaid monthly chart. Despite of the last months dip slightly below 3.4k, we have a sharp rebound in the fag end of the month, thereby restricting the months close well above the threshold. The strength, seen here in the bulls camp, is likely to be put for the severe test in the next few trading sessions before making a final attempt to surpass 3740. In short, I am expecting a fierce battle in the ranges (3400-3740) and break out thereafter, mostly upward.
On the quarterly chart the index is showing repetitive rebounds near the very curial trendline support of 3400. The end of this months trading will clear the 'fog' i.e. whether it holds the key level of 3400. Overall, the daily/monthly & quarterly charts indicating towards possible "shift" in the control, provided 3400 is defended by the bulls; on the upside a close above 3740 will be the first sign of the strength.