November 4, 2008

Dow -Hesitating near 9.4k!

Dow Jones Industrial Average (9360) Near term trend: Sideways
In last week's analysis, we had argued in 'favor' of recovery (at least time being) & shown how Dow is close to critical support zone of 7.7-7.9k based on a)200 months moving average b) lower end support of perfect falling channel. And also mentioned importance of a week based on Fibonacci time cycle - 55th week since absolute top.
The Dow gained over 11% during the week & thereby successfully "arrested" the downfall of the last few weeks. However after initial gains, the bulls are making "hesitant" moves near 9.3-9.4k mark. Failure to sustain above it could potentially lead to "retest" of 8.8-8.6k area(most expected) where expect a renewed buying interest by "strong hands". On the other hand, bullish possibility (only) exist if posted fresh gains above 9.4k, which may lead to 10k or higher(least expected). In nutshell, the downfall is arrested, however, after initial up move expect a shakeout in the 'range' (8.6k-9.4k) before unfolding benign up move lasting 5-7 weeks.