October 21, 2008

World Index at major support of "Golden ratio", expect rally across the world markets

World Index (335): (Based on 44 active stock market indices of the world)
Near term trend: Positive (Corrective) The spectacular bull run (2003-2008) represented by perfect 'rising' parallel channel has ended with a downward break in Jan 08. Since then the "World" index has seen value erosion of over 45% in just 11 months (top made in Nov07). Interestingly, the fast and furious fall has likely to 'halt' (no confirmation for using word 'end') near 0.618% Fibonacci retracement level - popularly known as "Golden ration" -of the entire rise in the world markets since 2003. Further, the month of "October" has played a crucial role in economic cycles, world over. These two important cycles viz price action near the golden ration & October (time) cycle are indicating towards a corrective rally in the global stock markets. However each individual market is likely to play lead/lag role in the next few days/weeks. For e.g. Dow is already up over 19% since the low of 7773(10th Oct). Observe the steepness of the fall in each subsequent "perfect" falling parallel channels on weekly chart. The recent one (dark blue- Channel 3) has supported the price action in the most violent week, expect a rally towards upper end of the channel (No 3).