Near term Trend : Bearish (Pending reversal)
The Hangseng lost almost 58% since Nov07(not a big deal...everyone lost). See the inlaid quarterly chart.In December 1987 the index was at 2086. In a subsequent roaring bull market the index went up & peaked at 27254 in December 2007. This entire rise (20 years) was within the perfect rising parallel channel ( & not random). For the current quarter i,e, December 2008 (again December - coincidence or time cycle) the lower end (of parallel channel) value - i.e. likely support - is 13403. And today's (23rd Oct) low tick is 13403.
Now the next important point; 0.618% retracement value of the entire rise from 1987 to 2007 is 13497. Today's low tick is 13403.
Now see the daily chart (above). Latest price action shows "contracting" tendency; i.e. both rallies and falls are getting smaller than immediately preceding rise/fall. This is probably a good "accumulation" pattern. But needs bullish confirmation with quick price move above 15325-15425. In nutshell, the bulls are at important time & price cycles, a decisive action from "bulls" camp will confirm the "beginning" of the end....at least in short to medium term.
Now the next important point; 0.618% retracement value of the entire rise from 1987 to 2007 is 13497. Today's low tick is 13403.
Now see the daily chart (above). Latest price action shows "contracting" tendency; i.e. both rallies and falls are getting smaller than immediately preceding rise/fall. This is probably a good "accumulation" pattern. But needs bullish confirmation with quick price move above 15325-15425. In nutshell, the bulls are at important time & price cycles, a decisive action from "bulls" camp will confirm the "beginning" of the end....at least in short to medium term.
