January 12, 2009

Dow: 13 Weeks consolidation is likely to end!

Dow Jones Industrial Average (8599) Near term trend: Down
For the last 13 weeks Dow is stuck in the trading range of 8k-9k, with significant resistance near >9k. The week ended 10th October 2008 has seen a massive fall from 10322 to 7882 i.e 23.6% fall within a week(pointed by blue arrow on the chart). Interestingly, the subsequent 13 weeks(from 10th Oct) trading is perfectly within the range of this single week's trading. This proves (once again) that despite of several attempts the bulls are weak & there 'energy' is being digested/sucked by the strong enemy within the small trading range. Now after constant failure to push up the market above 9-9.4k, bulls are likely to 'surrender' . Remember that we have already consumed "13" weeks, a Fibonacci number., in a sideways (counter trend) trading. The next week, failure to trade above 8.9k will lead to reversal in the trend with initial objective to test 8k & then Oct low.