August 11, 2008

Negative < $198...

DOW AIG (Commodity Index) $189.3 Anticipated weakness near $224 (15th July). Since then fallen over 15% in just 18 trading sessions. See the inlaid daily chart. The current down move is within perfect falling parallel channel from the absolute top at $238.5. As long as confined to this channel move, it may fall to $180-$174, or even below in the next few trading sessions. On the upside, to break the channel upward & halt the downtrend, at least for the time being, it needs a close > $198, a difficult task, as of now.