Major Indices :: Sensex : 17600 : Nifty : 5228
Intermediate Trend: Bullish
Key Technical Levels: 17810- on the upside, 17240- on the downside
After giving a bullish call, exactly at the recent trough (14800), we became little bit skeptical, in the last week, about the continuation of the bullish trend.. We said (in the last review -16739), "bulls achieved our target of 17225 with 17% rise, failure to post monthly close above 16800 could turned out to be a 'Trojan horse' in the bulls camp; Sensex like to hit a roadblock near the upper end of the parallel channel drawn on daily charts; any close below 16781 will trigger the bearish dominance.....(see http://sagetrader.blogspot.com/search/label/Sensex%20Analysis to read all comments the Sensex since 14677).
In reality, the Sensex seldom touched our stop loss of 16781 and went above 17k, comfortably, thereby strengthening the positions further. The upside target of 17660 was almost achieved with a high of 17621 in the last trading session. Further, it has also posted a monthly close well above the level of 16800. Considering the "delicate" situation near 17k, we had labeled the intermediate trend as "sideways" from earlier "bullish"; now the trend is re-labeled as "Bullish"; Stop 16585/4950.
Interestingly, the week ended with the Sensex resting exactly on the upper end of the parallel channel. Now, technically this is a good opportunity for the bears, if they are in mood to fight back. Otherwise, it will be free walk for the bulls. Near term target 17810-18137. On the downside, trading below 17240, will be a setback for the bulls (may be temporary resting period) and in that case expect a dip up to 16900.
