Dow Jones (12216) : Intermediate trend : Sideways
In our last review we did mention “The Dow has strengthened the short term position and expect a rise up to 12815-41 with a firm support placed at 12077-11951 area”. The Dow touched a high 12687, as against 12815, and slipped with loss of 4 consecutive trading sessions, tested a low of 12164(support 12077).
In spite of these 4 loosing trading sessions, the extremely near term picture remains bullish, above 12077-11951. Only a close below this, will
open the fresh bearish move, may be once again targeting the recent low of Jan 08 (11500) which 
is also the “last resort” for the bulls. On the upside 12815-12841 remains a challenging area for the bulls.
From the macro level, the world over, the debate is continuing about the “fate” of Dow. There is a big fight between doomsayers and optimists. Logically, (if) in case of recession in US, the Dow should crash to sub 10k levels or even below that. However, there is another concept of “relative” performance of the Dow vis-a-vis other Economies/asset classes. Look at the comparison between Gold prices and Dow since 2000. The gold prices moved from 100 (base) to 350 in the last 7 years, while the Dow is (still) languishing near the base line. In short the Dow is trading that of Dec 99 prices of gold. While at the same time “emerging markets” have outperformed the gold in the given time zone.
Has the “slowdown/recession” in US already been discounted in price? If so, then the Dow may not witness vertical fall, but may remain lackluster in a broader trading ranges, for the near term.
is also the “last resort” for the bulls. On the upside 12815-12841 remains a challenging area for the bulls.
From the macro level, the world over, the debate is continuing about the “fate” of Dow. There is a big fight between doomsayers and optimists. Logically, (if) in case of recession in US, the Dow should crash to sub 10k levels or even below that. However, there is another concept of “relative” performance of the Dow vis-a-vis other Economies/asset classes. Look at the comparison between Gold prices and Dow since 2000. The gold prices moved from 100 (base) to 350 in the last 7 years, while the Dow is (still) languishing near the base line. In short the Dow is trading that of Dec 99 prices of gold. While at the same time “emerging markets” have outperformed the gold in the given time zone.
Has the “slowdown/recession” in US already been discounted in price? If so, then the Dow may not witness vertical fall, but may remain lackluster in a broader trading ranges, for the near term.
