FTSE 100 (8599) Near term trend: Down Form the Oct low (3665) the index has gained over 27% in a mostly likely 'corrective' rally within the structural bear market. 
Last weeks high of 4675 is almost there on 0.50% retracement level (4650)of entire fall from 5649 to 3665, i.e. last segment of the preceding fall. Historically bear markets rallies do correct 50% of the fall, in a counter trend. Is it means the corrective uptrend in FTSE is likely to terminate here? Yes, the odds are very high (for a reversal). As long as the index is trading below 4650, say 4.7k, resumption of bearish trend is likely. On the downside we need weekly close below 4.2k, as a confirmation & then expect 3.8k or even a new low within next few days/weeks. If this argument is wrong then we will see firm up move till 4980.
Last weeks high of 4675 is almost there on 0.50% retracement level (4650)of entire fall from 5649 to 3665, i.e. last segment of the preceding fall. Historically bear markets rallies do correct 50% of the fall, in a counter trend. Is it means the corrective uptrend in FTSE is likely to terminate here? Yes, the odds are very high (for a reversal). As long as the index is trading below 4650, say 4.7k, resumption of bearish trend is likely. On the downside we need weekly close below 4.2k, as a confirmation & then expect 3.8k or even a new low within next few days/weeks. If this argument is wrong then we will see firm up move till 4980.
