Technical Analysis of Global stock Markets

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STI: Bulls failed to clear major hurdle!

2009-01-15T23:45:00.004+05:30

Strait Times(1704) Near Term Trend:Negative I was actively considering bullish up move- counter trend- since Oct lows. The rally did occurred but in a very fragmented manner, with more 'time' consumption rather than 'price' action. See the inlaid daily chart, the index halted its corrective rally almost exactly on the 'middle' trendline of the equi-distance parallel channel. Since then the index

Dow: 13 Weeks consolidation is likely to end!

2009-01-12T10:45:00.001+05:30

Dow Jones Industrial Average (8599) Near term trend: Down For the last 13 weeks Dow is stuck in the trading range of 8k-9k, with significant resistance near >9k. The week ended 10th October 2008 has seen a massive fall from 10322 to 7882 i.e 23.6% fall within a week(pointed by blue arrow on the chart). Interestingly, the subsequent 13 weeks(from 10th Oct) trading is perfectly within the range of

2009-01-12T00:31:00.003+05:30

MERVAL BUENOS AIRES(1123) Near term trend: Negative In the last review I said "the "flip side" is that we are still trading well below the important trigger of "1216". In the near short term expect a weakening of the prices if Index failed to close above 1150 or the important 1216". In synchronization with the global markets, Merval had also seen a corrective rally since Oct 2008, netting over

FTSE: strong resistance at 4.7k!

2009-01-12T00:16:00.001+05:30

FTSE 100 (8599) Near term trend: Down Form the Oct low (3665) the index has gained over 27% in a mostly likely 'corrective' rally within the structural bear market. Last weeks high of 4675 is almost there on 0.50% retracement level (4650)of entire fall from 5649 to 3665, i.e. last segment of the preceding fall. Historically bear markets rallies do correct 50% of the fall, in a counter trend. Is

World is flat! Literally

2009-01-12T00:00:00.000+05:30

World Index(321) (In house-based on 44 active indices of the world) Near Term Trend: Down In the previous review I said " on the weekly chart it can be seen that the bulls are swung back and attempting an upward break of the falling parallel channel (blue), i.e. indicating an reversal in the trend. Still on a safer side, we will wait till break of '329' for a confirmation. The bulls tried very

Who sold off Satyam Computers??

2009-01-08T23:52:00.007+05:30

Satyam Computers (Rs.39.95) Weekly Chart: Since Rs.544 (May08) the stock was falling in perfectly parallel channel. Till yesterday, the price was being supported / resisted exactly on the lower/upper end of this channel (marked by arrows). Even well before the ‘Maytas’ saga unfolded, the trend was completely bearish and on this ‘bad news’ price just went down (from middle of the channel

Cleared resistance of 8700! Tough task to clear 9.6k!

2009-01-07T08:18:00.007+05:30

Nikkei 225(9239) Near Term Trend: Positive > 8.7k In the previous review I said "Since Oct 08,the Nikkei could never muster the strength to surpass the 8.7k mark on closing basis(even though in intra-week it had rallied to 9.1k-9.3k levels). As such I would persist with an range trading (8.7k-7.6k) view on the Index, within the overall structural bear market, till the bulls shows commitments >

Corrective rally! Will clear 3740?

2009-01-07T07:04:00.010+05:30

All Ordinaries Index(3728) Near Term Trend: Positive > 3.6k I said "I will go with sideways option for the near term trading (within the overall bear market) till the things improves a lot (first break from recent channel on the daily charts and then possibly close above 3740)".See the inlaid chart(daily), after initial hesitation, the index broke the falling parallel channel on 29th Dec 08(3554)

Trading near sensitive area!

2008-12-17T15:02:00.008+05:30

China HangSeng(15460) Near Term Trend:Turning Negative! I said "Watch 14.7k, a break below (on close basis) will lead to shallow down move, may be towards 14.2k -13.5k in the next few trading sessions,On the upside 15.3k is a next hurdle". Since then we had seen index moving in a choppy range of 14.7k to 15.7k; although it has surpassed the important hurdle of 15.3k, I am skeptical about

3740 remain untouched...! Weakness persist!

2008-12-16T13:53:00.005+05:30

All Ordinaries Index(3499) Near Term Trend: Sideways I said "The daily/monthly & quarterly charts indicating towards possible "shift" in the control, provided 3400 is defended by the bulls; & on the upside a close above 3740 will be the first sign of the strength". Last week, the index failed to achieve anything, i.e. neither a close above 3740 nor a break below 3400.On the daily charts, I was

Failed to clear the hurdle(8700)!

2008-12-16T12:52:00.006+05:30

Nikkei 225(8568) Near Term Trend: Sideways In the previous review I said "Last 4 weeks the index is moving in a tight range of 7.6k to 8.6k, keeping possibility of "double bottom" scenario, alive. It seems that the downside is now fairly protected at 7.6k, but what we need is a quick up move beyond this trading range and then the close above 9.6k for the confirmation of the reversal". However,

STI showing arresting tendency!

2008-12-10T00:23:00.005+05:30

Strait Times(1754) Near Term Trend:Turning Positive In the previous review I said "weakness is persistent on the STI, unless and until seen a move above 1780-1785; the best case scenario is range trading between 1470-1785". Since then we had seen a down move towards 1638 and then a strong rebound almost there near to the upper end of the range. Now what we required (for trend reversal) is a

Watch 14.7k!

2008-12-09T23:49:00.006+05:30

China HangSeng(14753) Near Term Trend:Positive I said"although the index has seen a positive movement (since 11.8k) as per expectations, the anticipated 'ending' triangle could turned out to be a 'expanding' triangle, thereby keeping the possibility of retesting of Oct lows open; on the upside a weekly close above 14.3k will lead to change in the opinion". We have seen Index moving upwards (>

Final combat...(3400-3740)..?

2008-12-09T22:54:00.007+05:30

All Ordinaries Index(3533) Near Term Trend: Turning Positive I said "the activity now shifted to new falling parallel channel (blue), unless seen the close above this channel (last weeks value 3740) the downtrend will remain intact; on the quarterly charts 3400 is crucial, holding close above this in the current quarter (Dec 08) will be a positive development". Last week the index failed to

Holding double bottom, good times ahead...?

2008-12-09T22:27:00.003+05:30

Nikkei 225 (8395) Near term trend: Positive I said "the index is making confused moves, I will turn bullish only if closed > 9k; on the downside if broken 7960, it may retest October low". As anticipated the Nikkei slipped below 7960, but restricted the fall to 7406, rather than retesting Oct low of 6994. For the last 4 weeks the index is moving in a tight range of 7.6k to 8.6k, keeping

Bulls are ready for the counter attack..?

2008-12-09T20:54:00.005+05:30

World Index(311) (In house-based on 44 active indices of the world) Near Term Trend: Positive In the last review (293) I said "a move beyond upper end of the channel (daily) will confirm end of wave 'c', thereby opening wave 'd' on the upside;on the weekly charts a move beyond 329 is required for confirmation of reversal of the trend; on the monthly charts there is a 'possibility' of double

Bulls gathered (much) required strength...

2008-12-04T12:04:00.005+05:30

China SSE Composite(2001) Near Term Trend: Positive In the last review I said "Near term trend is positive;expect a swift up move towards next crucial level of 2.2k; stop is placed at 1740-1780". Since then the index consolidated within the range of 1850-2000, without disturbing the bullish setup. See the inlaid daily chart, the index has retraced the previous down move (from 2050 to 1838) of 9

Weekness persist!

2008-12-02T09:49:00.006+05:30

Strait Times(1655) Near Term Trend: Negative In the last review I had argued that "STI is trading close to "reversal" points, however, a quick up move above 1785 is required to end the minor trend near 1565 with opening of short to medium term uptrend; Volatility SAR indicator pointing a reversal in the trend if able to close > 1820; on the monthly charts bulls need to 'push' the index above 1780

Required close above 3740; else...

2008-12-02T08:09:00.006+05:30

All Ordinaries Index(3484) Near Term Trend: Negative In the last review(3483) I had stated "the trend is down; expect short term respite if able to hold 3400(then value of the lower end of the parallel channel); on the monthly charts, again, 3400 is a critical long term support; however if failed to hold & recover we may test 3000". Since then it broke the lower end of the channel (dotted) & went

Short term bounce, before moving to $40-$37...?

2008-11-23T19:14:00.007+05:30

Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate($49.62) Oil has dropped over 67% in just 4 months. See the inlaid daily chart; the fall was confined to perfect falling parallel channel drawn from the top. The recent low is quite close on the lower end of the channel, indicates a respite for the Oil bulls in the near future, provided holds $47.5/$48 area. On the upside $53 is critical & if able to sustain above

Trading close to reversal points!

2008-11-23T13:54:00.011+05:30

Strait Times(1662) Near term trend: Negative/Pending reversal In the review dated 4th Nov(1864) I had anticipated the absolute reversal in the trend, at least till the year end, near 1680-1620 area. Accordingly STI fallen into anticipated area, however, in the last review I had suspected "expanding" triangle(daily chart) & as a precaution argued in favor of continuation of bearish trend, with "

Holding "October" low..Reversal is in sight..

2008-11-22T19:11:00.010+05:30

World Index(294) (In house-based on 44 active indices of the world) Last 3-4 weeks, I am arguing for a "recovery" in the global stock markets, based on 'macro' level technical analysis of this 'in house' World Index (WI). This week, I maintaining my pending bullish reversal stance, despite of a 15% drop since the beginning of the month. The current month, so far, has not created a fresh low

Global Markets & performance of BRIC

2008-11-22T19:10:00.003+05:30

World Index Vs BRIC In the World Index (WI) analysis we have seen that WI has retraced back to the April 2005 level. The "Developed" economies had significantly lost the value in the current financial turmoil, with many indices retraced as much as to 2003 levels(DOW,Nikkei,FTSE,CAC40) with only one participation form emerging economies, Taiwan. However from the BRIC group, Brazil, India & China

KLSE -downward bias

2008-11-20T01:00:00.003+05:30

KLSE Composite(877) Near term trend:Negative Similar to many Asian markets, KLSE is also showing "expanding" bias on the down move, which could lead to more down side may be retesting of its previous low. Stop 900.

AORD broken stop..watch 3400! Else..

2008-11-20T00:45:00.005+05:30

All Ordinaries Index(3483) Near term trend:Negative In the last review I had argued in favor of corrective rally by year end; also mentioned 3.9k as near term stop for the bulls. The index failed to move upward as anticipated & also broken the stop in quick time. In fact AORD was the only major index to break below the recent October low, indicating continuations of the downtrend contrary to our

HangSeng ..suspected expanding triangle..

2008-11-19T23:59:00.004+05:30

China-HangSeng(12815) Near term trend:Negative I said "I am expecting a pause in the uptrend with suspecting" ending" triangle formation where "b" leg is likely to be ended near 14.6/14.7k and "c" leg will open downward with target price of 12300-11650; which can provide excellent opportunity to buy for a medium term rise". HangSeng moved down exactly as per expectation. However an anticipated

Bullish only if trades > 9k!

2008-11-19T23:19:00.004+05:30

Nikkei 225(8273) Near term trend:Negative I said "Nikkei has fair chance to comeback with corrective rally, at lasting till the year end, based on observations on weekly/daily charts ; on the upside close above 9601 is important". However the last few trading sessions the Index has shown "confused" trading signals and is barely able to float above the 0.50%-0.618% fib retracement levels (

Expanding Triangle .? Heading towards new low.?

2008-11-19T22:38:00.004+05:30

Straits Times(1665) Near term trend: Negative In the last review I said "Considering the observations on weekly/monthly charts the possibility of significant bottom formation at recent low of 1475 is bright; However in the near term the existing rally is likely to be terminated anywhere between 1900-2000 with possibility of retesting 1680-1620". As expected, the STI topped out at 1933 & fallen

Failed to suprass 4325! New low?

2008-11-19T22:18:00.003+05:30

FTSE 100(3999) Near term trend: Negative In the last review, I have argued in favor of 'corrective rally' saying that " the recent fall from 4.6k is a part of overall "recovery" attempts rather than fresh fall; On the upside close above 4375 is required to add strength in the recovery attempt; whereas stop is placed near 0.618% fib level". However, today's break of 0.618% retracement level is "

Corrective rally is on...

2008-11-14T14:10:00.001+05:30

FTSE 100(4169) Near term trend: Positive After creating "double top" bearish formation at 6150 in Oct 07, FTSE tanked more than 45% in "global equity meltdown". Two weeks back the index recovered "exactly" from the lower end of the "equi-distance" parallel channel, thereby providing excellent opportunity for the bulls to fight back. Since then i.e. from low of 3665(27th Oct), FTSE has gained over

Dragaon retaliating....indeed. Now 2.2k is crucial!

2008-11-14T07:11:00.005+05:30

China-SSE Composite(1927) Near term trend: Positive I argued in favor of pending "bullish reversal" in Shanghai Index, in the last review dt 23 Oct, with anticipating strong support near 1740-1780, based on observations noted on "monthly" chart. The index consolidated almost exactly there (tolerance of 2-3%) in the support zone, before retaliating. Remember that the so-called 'fundamental' good

Seen anticipated recovery efforts....

2008-11-10T13:03:00.007+05:30

World Index(333) (In house- based on 44 active indices of the world) Near term trend: Positive In the last review (21st Oct) I had argued in favor of "Bullish reversal" at least in the short to medium term, in the World index, based on a)Possible halt in the furious fall at fib 0.618 retracement of entire bull run (2003-2007) b) Importance of October time cycle in economic cycles. See the inlaid

AORD at long term support....!

2008-11-10T13:01:00.001+05:30

All Ordinaries Index (4006) Near term trend: Positive (stop 3.9k) AORD lost 46% since its all time high(6873 Nov 07) i.e. worst than 1987 fall. However, along with anticipated global stock market recovery (see world index analysis), we are heading for a corrective rally based on following "Technical" observations. See the inlaid "Quarterly" chart. The index has been supported "exactly" on the

Nikkei- Double Bottom..?

2008-11-10T08:18:00.001+05:30

Nikkei 225 (8583) Near Term trend: Bullish (Stop 7.9k) In a recent turmoil Nikkei had created a 26 years low at 6994, the value last seen in Dec 1982. The "primary" bearish trend, started at 38957(Dec89), has seen 82% value erosion, so far. Since recent high of 18.3k(July07) we lost almost 62%, i.e. same magnitude of the fall seen across all "emerging markets" & not "Developed markets".

Argentina : Biggest rally since May 08

2008-11-05T14:22:00.008+05:30

MERVAL BUENOS AIRES (1123) In the last review (21st Oct-1216) I said "Index is poised for a recovery provided able to close above 1216 i.e. first indication of strength; if this is done it could move to 1349, preferably by Oct end". The index "tanked" very next day (& also negated a reversal possibility with 1216 remained untouched) and overshoted the downside target (of 1.1k) by wide margins.

Straits Times- Bottoming out..?

2008-11-04T13:04:00.015+05:30

Straits Times (1864) Near term trend: Sideways (Pending reversal) Since Oct 07(3942) STI had lost over 62%, mimicking the trend witnessed in all the leading global stock markets. In the last week the Index has taken a good support near the long term trend line drawn by joining the respective lows of 1998 and 2003. (see the following monthly chart). The "dotted" line indicates 98 & 2003 lows

HangSeng-Swift down move on cards!

2008-11-04T10:50:00.014+05:30

China - Hang Seng 14375 Near term trend: Sideways. In the last review I had argued in favor of "possible bullish reversal" in Hang Seng based on a)20 years parallel channel support near 13k b) 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (13k) of entire rise since 1987 & mentioned that a quick price move beyond 15325-15425 will provide required confirmation. We had seen the Index taking support near the

Dow -Hesitating near 9.4k!

2008-11-04T00:40:00.008+05:30

Dow Jones Industrial Average (9360) Near term trend: Sideways In last week's analysis, we had argued in 'favor' of recovery (at least time being) & shown how Dow is close to critical support zone of 7.7-7.9k based on a)200 months moving average b) lower end support of perfect falling channel. And also mentioned importance of a week based on Fibonacci time cycle - 55th week since absolute top.

Dow (still) above 7.7k......Advantage bulls??

2008-10-26T21:19:00.019+05:30

Dow Jones Industrial Average- (8378): Near term Trend : Bearish (Impending corrective rally). Last week Dow lost just over 5.4% and manage to float above the panic low of 7.7k(10th Oct) despite of a rout in the global equity markets. Is it a signal of strenght? Since Oct 2007 it has lost more than 45% value & the current week is 55th week from the absolute top of 14k. Being a Fibonacci number (55

Hongkong Bulls : Where are you guys...??

2008-10-23T20:10:00.032+05:30

China- HangSeng (13760): Near term Trend : Bearish (Pending reversal) The Hangseng lost almost 58% since Nov07(not a big deal...everyone lost). See the inlaid quarterly chart.In December 1987 the index was at 2086. In a subsequent roaring bull market the index went up & peaked at 27254 in December 2007. This entire rise (20

China : will the dragon retaliate...?

2008-10-23T17:23:00.020+05:30

China- SSE Composite (1875): Near term Trend : Bearish (Pending reversal) The bull run started in Oct 2005(1067) has ended in Oct 2007(6124). Since then the SSE index felled in a perfect falling parallel channel. See the inlaid monthly chart with respective support/resistance level(s) indicated by arrows.